Market Mantra

Gitanjali Gems Ltd hits another buyer Freeze in the opening trade. The scrip is locked at the upper circuits at Rs.80.90 in the BSE. The scrip was asked to be accumulated couple of days back at around Rs.73.40. 

A Nifty_Future buy was given at 5430, which gave some returns to the traders as it touched 5450, after the call. Also, yesterday's Nifty_5700 Call Option at Rs.5-5.5, today touched Rs.11.95, much above the target of Rs.9, given yesterday. To know the levels of Nifty_Futures for trading, join my recommended brokerage house and get you everything for free. Also, get support during the market hours. In these kinds of markets when it is becoming difficult even for the experts to make money, it would be dangerous to play, in the market alone; unless one  has sufficient exposure on the same and has done substantial research. Also, why should one waste time on a subject, instead of concentrating on his own job. Always try to remain focused. 

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCX Ltd) recommended yesterday, at around Rs.268-269, today hit the upper freeze in the opening trade. Those who could buy yesterday, might have hit a JACKPOT, as the stock is expected to give substantial returns from here. Meanwhile, MCX BNP Paribas Arbitrage has acquired 566,000 shares of the company at an estimated cost of Rs.145 million (Rs.14.5 Cr). CLICK HERE.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Shares of Financial Technologies Ltd (Rs.228.30) surged to Rs.235, intra-day after the company stated that it concluded renegotiation of technology supply agreement with Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX). There was a big crash in it's share price after the NSEL scam. The stock, should be crossing Rs.300 in the coming days. In other words, Financial Technologies should come back to focus again after a re-agreement with MCX for technology supply.

IVRCL Ltd (Rs.15.85) was recommended today as a fresh buy at Rs.15-15.50, for a target of Rs.21. The scrip surged to Rs.16.30, intra-day. The company has an order book of  more than Rs.20, 000 crore and it is implementing the CDR package. 
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Eng Ltd today closed flat at Rs.38.40. According to the media reports, the government of India is mulling various options, which include lower bank interest rates, infrastructure status to shipyards, a separate fund and also special subsidy to shipbuilders who source raw material and parts locally. It is a company whose promoter is Nikhil Prataprai Gandhi, a person having very good rapport with Senior Ambani. Moreover, Nikhil Gandhi, chairman, Pipavav Shipyard told CNBC-TV18 at the beginning of this year, that the private ship-builder is in talks with a French company for a strategic stake sale. He says this partnership is primarily aimed to bring in the technological know-how and proprietary knowledge of military hardware into the country. The promoter stake after the deal might come down to 41% from 45% initially. SAAB AB of Sweden has already a stake in Pipavav. SAAB AB and the new partner, if the stake sale goes through, will together own 15 percent in the company, says Gandhi. The company has an order book of around Rs.12, 000 crore and is trading near the 52-week low price of Rs.30.55, hence the downside is limited. Besides, Rakesh Radheshyam Jhunjhunwala and Rekha Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, respectively holds 2.11% and 1.30% stake in the company. Also,  the uncertainty over the fate of subsidy payments for shipbuilders such as Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Co. Ltd, ABG Shipyard Ltd and Bharati Shipyard Ltd could lift soon, with the government looking to extend the payment timeline for a scheme which ended seven years ago.

Gitanjali Gems Ltd (Rs.65.50) which got badly hammered, was recommended today at Rs.65, just a month ahead of Diwali. This is a sure shot recommendation for  a target of Rs.79-80, in the short term. Shares of jewellery makers should rise on expectations of pick up in sales in the festive season. Meanwhile, according to the Business Standard, September 3, 2014:  Amid expectations of a turnaround in global jewellery purchases and a revival in ornament exports, Indian diamond processors participated aggressively in the De Beers’ sightholders contract registration to ensure supply of rough diamonds till 2018. “The basic raw materials remain the same. Exports cannot decline beyond a point. Therefore, raw material surety is required. De Beers processes only 40-42 per cent of the rough diamonds they mine and, hence, Indian processors should take a long-term view,” said Sabyasachi Ray, executive director, GJEPC. Mehul Choksi, managing director of Gitanjali Gems, a De Beers’ sightholder, said the current fall in exports was a seasonal trend. “Exports decline in the July-August period. But so far, this year has been good. We anticipate the economic recovery in the US will yield positive results on jewellery exports,” he said. The US accounts for 38 per cent of global jewellery consumption.

My earlier recommended Genera Agri Ltd today rose by more than 15% and closed at Rs.8.24. The intra-day high for the scrip was Rs.8.48.

The Nifty has closed with a weekly loss of 152 points in the last week. On the other hand, the level of 7850 showed buying interest on Friday, from where the Nifty reversed as was expected. Today, the small cap index was strong since the start. 

Winning Strokes

Photo: Seeking Alpha

Today the Nifty as expected got support around 10400 range and closed at 10,492.85 down 61.45 points or 0.58%. The U.S. stocks gained Wednesday afternoon as Wall Street attempted to shake off a selloff in the previous session amid data that were seen as underlining strength in the economy, which is a good sign as the US is one the most powerful engines of world growth. I feel it is pertinent to mention here that the US interest rates will rise if and only if there is sudden uptick of the inflation, otherwise CY18 will be as usual with around 2-3 rate hikes by the US Federal Reserves. Therefore, all those talks that the US Federal Reserve may turn more hawkish and increase corporate borrowing costs to much higher level will not carry any value if the inflation remains steady.

Meanwhile, the Indian economy grew at 7.2% in October-December 2017, and is likely to expand by 6.6% in 2017-18, latest official estimates said on Wednesday, amid strong revival signs in consumption spending and investment activity. This is the best growth rate recorded in this year and much better than the Reuters poll of 6.9%. This has helped India regain the status of the world's fastest-growing major economy, replacing China. The Indian Economy is poised to move in a faster lane in the days ahead, recovering from the effects of demonetization and GST. The manufacturing sector grew 8.1% in the third quarter of 2017-18, from 6.9% in the previous quarter, and 8.1% in the same quarter of the previous year. The sector is projected to expand at 5.1% during the full year, inching towards last year’s 7.9% growth, indicating that factories and firms have moved on from the irritants caused by GST. We will definitely see positive movement in the markets tomorrow, especially in the auto sector due to such encouraging data.

#Those who are holding the shares of Tata Motors Ltd (Rs.370.20) should continue to add the scrip on every decline, because the transportation sector best mirrors the growth of any economy; as mentioned in my earlier write up. In Q3FY18, though it came out with disappointing set of Jaguar Land Rover earnings, it's standalone performance was strong. Analysts retained their ratings but slashed earnings estimates. It is to be noted that 85% of Tata Motors' revenues comes from its Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) unit. Tata Motors' passenger and commercial vehicle business performance was strong for the December '18 quarter, as standalone profit stood at Rs.183.7 crore in Q3 against loss of Rs.1,045.9 crore in same period last year.

#Today, a Buy was initiated in MCX Ltd at around Rs.780, SL: Rs.762,  T: Rs.820 on T+4 basis. Mrugank M Paranjape, MD & CEO of Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) said that the bourse has started to witness positive increase in volume in the 45-50 days of Q4. He further said that volumes up 16% so far and Q4 average volume is close to pre-demonetisation levels.

“We used to clock about Rs 9,800 crore on bullion per demonetisation and that number throughout 2017 was roughly in the range of Rs 5,000 crore and that number has picked up by about Rs 1,000 crore in last 45 days. However, we have a good mix where we have energy, we have base metals and these two segments have done very well for us,” he said. Talking about products, he said we are hoping to get two more approvals from Sebi before end of FY18. We will look to launch two more products in April 2018, he added.

#Those who are holding the shares of Aban Offshore Ltd (Rs.171.05) can look for targets of Rs.191/206/218/230/247 in the coming days, as the strength of the US economy is likely to push up the crude oil prices above $65 per barrel within a short term.

Gold seen extending gains from two-week high

(Reuters) - Gold futures in India, which hit the highest level in two weeks on Friday, could extend gains on a weak dollar ahead of further monetary easing in the United States.

Weak U.S. growth data has raised expectations the Federal Reserve will keep its bond buying at $85 billion a month, while the European Central Bank is widely expected to announce an interest rate cut when it meets on Thursday.

Accommodative policy is supportive for gold as printing of money tends to be inflationary.

"Overall gold will remain on the upside on loose monetary policy stance by the U.S.," said Sumit Mukherjee, an analyst at Karvy Comtrade.

The actively traded gold for June delivery was 0.17 percent lower at 27,144 rupees per 10 gram on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), after hitting a high of 27,447 rupees on Friday, a level seen on April 15.

Gold may trade in a range of 26,300-27,800 rupees, said Mukherjee.

However, lower physical demand from India after the buying frenzy following a 20 percent drop in prices from the peak, could limit the upside in prices. India will celebrate Akshaya Tritiya next month, while weddings will continue till June-July.

Silver for May delivery was 0.17 percent higher at 45,118 rupees per kg on the MCX.

Silver may trade in a range of 43,400-48,000, said Mukherjee.

(Reporting by Siddesh Mayenkar; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Courtesy: Reutes

Winning Strokes

Photos: Colossos

The Indian bourses got support at around near 9981, as mentioned to the Premium Members during the market hours yesterday. The pullback rally made the Nifty gain by 132.60 points or 1.33%. The Nifty is likely to get some resistance near 200-DMA, but the short term trend remains bullish.  

The stock of Reliance Infrastructure Ltd which was recommended around Rs.422 yesterday, moved to Rs.429.15 in the NSE before closing at Rs.424.80. Today, if the market remains buoyant, then we could see Rs.433-437 - 441-447 levels. 

The scrip of MCX Ltd (Rs.688.75) moved to Rs.698, after it was recommended around Rs.681, to the Premium Members. The company is likely to launch two more products in April 2018. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Mrugank M Paranjape, MD & CEO of Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) said that  the exchange is witnessing positive increase in volume in the 45-50 days of Q4. In January, this year SBI Mutual Fund bought 8,19,048 shares of Multi Commodity Exchange of India at Rs.840.50. We can look for targets of Rs.797-820 in the coming days.. 

The share of 3i Infotech Ltd yesterday moved to Rs.5.25 in the  NSE before closing at Rs.5.05. With the IT industry undergoing rapid changes in recent years, whether it is on, the software side or new business models, software companies are forced to adopt or make crucial changes to their overall strategies in order to stay relevant in the changing times. And that’s what the Mumbai based software product company 3i Infotech has done in recent years by planning and executing a three-stage business strategy of ‘protect-consolidate-grow.’ To a large extent, this strategy has been successful in helping 3i Infotech to revive and revamp its overall business, software product portfolio, customers, revenue, and growth. You can start averaging and we can look for targets of Rs.5.70-6.90-7.85 in the coming days.

Today, during the market hours I will recommend a short term momentum counter to the Paid Group members. Join the Premium Group or trade through my associated brokerage house with a minimum portfolio size of Rs.3 lakhs to get the name of the scrip; which is likely to cover your subscription charge. 

Also, note that I have decided to give Special discounts on the subscription charge, to the SMALL INVESTORS, till 15th April, 2018. So hurry up!! The market has become so competitive these days, that it is getting increasingly difficult to make money on a consistent basis even for the experts. 

Copper rises on weak dollar, breaks out of flat trend
Easing Eurozone woes, pulls base metals higher
Ruchika Shah / Mumbai Apr 20, 2012

Three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange traded higher today, erasing the flat trend continuing for the past three days.
Local copper contract on the MCX also broke out of the three-day humdrum and was trading Rs 1.80 higher, at Rs 420.05 today. The rupee was weak against the dollar after hitting a 14-week low in the last hour of trading yesterday. This helped in pulling local copper prices higher.
Eurozone concerns eased as the region's IFO business climate data released today was better than estimated, said Priyanka Jhaveri, an analyst with Kotak Commodity Services. This strengthed the euro against the dollar, which pushed dollar-denominated commodities such as base metals higher in the global markets.
Benchmark copper contract on the LME was trading at $8,079 per tonne, up $29 from Thursday's close. The contract had been settling at $8,050 for the past three days, she said.
China, the world's largest importer and consumer of base metals, is seen re-exporting its copper stocks from the bonded warehouses at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, to ease LME backwardation.
"Backwardation, is a sign of bullishness," she says. It means that the spot market is tight with high demand and restricted supply. This hints at a bullish trend in base metals for the rest of the day.
Prices at the LME compared to spot market prices, have been lower, which is an unusual trend, Jhaveri says. But this has been the occurrence at LME where copper is going at a discount, while the red metal in the spot market is being sold at a premium.
LME 3-month copper premium, a premium for cash copper against three-month delivery on the world's biggest metal marketplace popped up to $114 per tonne on Tuesday, a level not seen since 2008.
It was going at a premium of close to $80-85 per tonne, which was now down at $44 today due to backwardation, which resulted in rising stocks at LME-monitored warehouses. This is still higher than $10-40 premium at SHFE.
However, copper, pulling the base metal complex, is expected to be bullish in the evening trading session, in the absence of any significant data release later today, Jhaveri said.
According to Kotak Commodity Services, MCX April copper contract may get support at Rs 416 and face resistance at Rs 424, while the 3-month contract is expected to find support at $8,000 and face resistance at $8,150 later today.

Courtesy: Business Standard

 Winning Strokes

The BSE Sensex closed at 59,537.07 up a whopping 1,564.45 points (+2.70%), while the Nifty ended the day at 17,759.30 up a massive 446.40 points (+2.58%).The Nifty had already reached my target of 17500.

The Nifty will next try to cross 18000 which it failed last time. In absence of not much negativity, this is achievable, by next week.

Yesterday Dow Jones closed at 31,510.43 down 280.44 points. However, the markets are likely to trade volatile with a bullish bias. Buy good scrips at reasonable valuations during market dips.

#I have taken some shares of Dharani Sugars and Chemicals Ltd (Rs.11.20) and Bajaj Hindustan Sugars Ltd (Rs.10), for those who accounts I manage. The reason behind this move are:

🔵The festive season has approached with the Ganapati Festival which generally escalates the demand for sugar.

🔵The finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman had announced, to levy additional excise duty of Rs.2 per litre on unblended fuel. The tax shall be applicable from October 1, 2022. 

The government's initiative was aimed at reducing the overall oil import by blending ethanol in the fuel. This move is likely to encourage ethanol blending of fuel and may have direct positive impact on the sugar companies.  

Ethanol is a byproduct of sugar manufacturing, and the government has planned to blend as much as 20%, ethanol in fuel by 2025.

Buy sugar counters and hold them for one month.

#Buy Zomato Ltd at Rs.62.20. The ensuring Festival season is good for restaurant and sugar stocks. 

#Those who are holding Reliance Power Ltd (Rs.18.40), kindly book some profits and hold the rest with a SL of Rs.17.40.

#Those who are holding the shares of Vodafone Idea Ltd (Rs.9.05), may continue to add on declines. ,

#Buy the shares of BSE Ltd at Rs.654, T: Rs.696/771. SL: Rs.646.

Any buoyancy in stock market is positive for stock exchanges. Whether it is bull 🐂 or 🐻 market, stock exchanges continue to earn.

The price of the share of MCX is ~Rs.1288, while the price of the share of BSE Ltd is only Rs.652. Now tell me which one carries more halo, MCX Ltd or BSE Ltd? Hence, I strongly feel that at the current price the share of BSE Ltd is undervalued.

#Nitin Spinners Ltd (Rs.226.65) continues to do well. Now raise the SL to Rs.221.

#The stock of RTN Power Ltd (Rs.4.10) hit the buyers freeze today. Once Rs.4.20/4.30 range is crossed we could see new 52 - week high.

A Big Boom is likely in Algorithm Trading

Market in the next 5 years

Photo: Business Standard 

As the demand for new innovative solutions increases and more startups arise in the space,  a spurt in demand for the Algorithm Trading Software is expected during the period 2019 to 2024. 

Types:

• Forex Algorithm Trading
• Stock Algorithm Trading
• Fund Algorithm Trading
• Bond Algorithm Trading
• Cryptographic Algorithm Trading

The global algorithmic trading market is expected to register a CAGR of 11% in the forecast period (2019 - 2024).

Some of the Key Players:

• Thomson Reuters 
• 63 Moons Technologies 
• Tata Consultancy Service
• Symphony Fintech
• Argo SE
• Kuberre Systems
• Virtu Financial

Highlights:

#The major growth drivers are:

• Rising demand for fast, reliable, and effective order execution, with a view to reduce transactional costs. Institutional investors and big brokerage houses have been using algorithmic trading to cut down on costs associated with bulk trading.
• Further, increasing government regulations and growing demand for market surveillance is helping the market growth. Traders keep track of their trading activities and investment portfolios by using market surveillance technology. 
• Moreover, the emergence of AI in the financial service sector is expected to be a major factor aiding in the growth of the algorithmic trading market.
• Also, algorithmic trading creates a highly liquid market due to rapid buy and sell orders without any human intervention. But, on the flip side this method can also lead to an instant loss of liquidity, which can restrain market growth. For instance, algorithmic trading was a significant factor in causing a loss of liquidity in currency markets after the Swiss franc discontinued its Euro peg in 2015.

#The cloud-based algorithmic trading platforms are expected to gain the maximum market traction during 2019 -24 period because cloud-based trading solutions help traders to gain maximum profits and effectively automate the trading process, apart from other benefits  like easy trade data maintenance, cost-effectiveness, scalability, and effective management.

• Cloud computing is a model which makes use of networks of remote servers usually accessed over the internet, to store, manage, and process data. 
• Cloud technology often helps in cost savings or improves business agility and responsiveness. 
• Cloud-based trading removes all the complexities to provide an extraordinarily powerful environment which allows the traders to focus more on developing trading strategies that work. 
• Due to the convenience of the cloud, traders can use the cloud service to check new trading strategies, backtest and run-time series analysis along with executing trades. 
• It also helps the traders to access real-time data and access the data anywhere at any time. 
• According to LogicMonitor's survey, 41% of enterprise workloads will be run on public cloud platforms like Amazon AWS, Google Cloud Platform, IBM Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and others, by 2020.
• On-premise workloads are also predicted to shrink from 37% as of today to 27% of all workloads by 2020.
• Financial Services has the highest percentage of server images deployed in private or public clouds, approaching nearly 100% Vs a median adoption rate of 19%.

Conclusion: 

Mumbai-based 63 Moons Technologies Ltd (Rs.101.85) is a small-cap IT company that is engaged in providing computer programming, consultancy related services. 

The company has filed a damage suits of Rs.10,000 crore against P Chidambaram and others, in their individual capacities for taking mala fide actions by abusing their powers.

Meanwhile,  Jignesh Shah who also help set up the flagship Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), said in September this year that the recovery group at NSEL has managed to establish full money trail of the entire amount of ₹5,600 crore, assets worth over ₹8,000 crore of defaulters have been attached, ₹3,300 crore of decrees and arbitration awards have been obtained and the same for the balance amount was underway.

"If we get cooperation from the agencies and the government, in the next 3-4 months, we can obtain full decrees for all 17 defaulters for the entire amount of ₹5,600 crore, along with arbitration awards and injunctions.



The 52-year-old businessman, who went on to be known as 'India's Exchange Man' for successfully launching 14 exchanges across six continents, including MCX in 2003, has been fighting a prolonged legal battle on multiple fronts ever since NSEL (National Spot Exchange Ltd) crisis broke out in 2013.

After setting up 14 exchanges across six continents in a span of ten years, engineer-turned-financial market wizard engineer-turned-financial market wizard Jignesh Shah now sees 100-times bigger business potential in a 'startup ecosystem' which he feels can create up to 10 crore jobs over the next decade.

Jignesh Shah is now the Chairman Emeritus of 63 Moons Technologies, the rechristened and re-booted version of the Financial Technologies India Ltd (FTIL), the erstwhile parent holding firm for all the exchanges founded by him.

One of the latest victories for him came late August,  2019, when the Bombay High Court ruled that the NSEL was not a financial establishment and quashed the attachment of assets, including bank accounts and properties, of 63 Moons Technologies, the parent company of Shah-led group which was earlier known as Financial Technologies (FT).

The Supreme Court has also set aside a government order to merge NSEL with 63 Moons, while the NCLT last year had dismissed a plea of the Corporate Affairs Ministry to supersede the 63 Moons' board.

Moreover, the Asia-Pacific region will occupy for more market share in following years in algorithm trading space, especially in China, also fast growing India and Southeast Asia regions.

Hence,  looking at the huge opportunities in future one can invest in the shares of 63 Moons Technologies Ltd at around Rs.102/103 for short term targets of Rs.121/127/131. SL: Rs.96. The stock 63 Moons Technologies  Ltd,  the erstwhile Financial Technologies fell from around Rs.3000 to the CMP of Rs.101.85. This is a turnaround story and hence is expected to give significant return to the investors.

Bibliography: Inputs from web searches...

Gold may gleam on wrangling over US borrowing limit

~M.R. SUBRAMANI

CHENNAI, SEPT 26:  Gold prices on the domestic spot and futures

markets are likely to gain on Thursday as US Congressmen wrangle over raising $16.7 trillion limit for government borrowing.

According to US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, the US will exhaust its borrowing limit on October 17. One of the solutions being contemplated is tampering with the healthcare programme introduced in 2010.

Key US data

Key US data later in the day could be mixed with jobless claims rising and GDP being better than forecast. Pending home sales and Euro Zone M3 money supply are other factors holding the key.

Currency moves could have an impact as a strong rupee against the dollar makes import of gold, crude oil and vegetable oils cheaper.

Spot gold, gold futures

In early Asian trading, spot gold rose to $1,332.68 an ounce and gold futures maturing in December to $1,332.60.

In the domestic market on Wednesday, gold for jewellery (99.5 per cent purity) ended higher at Rs 29,980 and pure gold (99.9 per cent purity) to Rs 30,130. On MCX, gold October contracts could rise above Rs 30,000.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices may head lower after a report from the US showed rise in inventories due to lower demand.

Brent crude contracts maturing in November fell to $108.15 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude for the same month to $102.33.

With grain prices rising on supply concerns, the oils and oilseeds complex could trade sideways.

New export orders for US soyabean and mixed harvest reports are bullish factors, while Indian harvest and possibility of higher palm oil inventories are the bearish factors.

Soyabean, crude palm oil

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean contracts maturing in November ruled higher at $13.13 a bushel. On Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, crude palm oil contracts maturing in December opened lower at 2,280 ringgit or $707 a tonne.

Wheat, corn prizes

Prices of wheat and corn (industrial maize) could head higher as China plans to increase the import to check the rising domestic prices and fears of frost in Argentina are causing concern over crop in the South American nation.

Wheat for delivery in December on CBOT rose to $6.71 a bushel. Corn, gaining in tandem with wheat, was up at $4.53 for contracts maturing in December.

Courtesy: The Hindu Business Line

Dr. Pranab Mukherjee is likely to correct the "horrendous blunders" of P Chidambaram...

Finance ministry takes up a review of the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) regime after a meeting with stock exchange officials.
The cost of trading in shares is likely to go down. The Union finance ministry has taken up a review of the current Securities Transaction Tax (STT) regime after a meeting with top exchange officials yesterday.
While a waiver of STT in the soon-to-be-launched small and medium enterprises (SMEs) segment of the exchanges is a done deal, a similar change of rule for the equity segment was being looked into, sources in the ministry informed.
Top officials from the National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), MCX-SX and United Stock Exchange were present at the meeting.
Prior to 2008, STT was allowed as a rebate against tax liability under Section 88E of the Income Tax Act, if the income from securities on which the tax was levied was included under the head 'profits and gains of business and profession'. This allowed brokers to pay less tax and generate more volumes.
The changes to the income tax rule on STT were announced in 2008 by then finance minister P Chidambaram. This put arbitrageurs and jobbers, who generated nearly 30 per cent of volumes, out of business. Trading sentiment is at a nadir due to low liquidity.
The NSE pays a little over Rs 5,000 crore as annual STT and the BSE pays Rs 2,000 crore.
Arbitrage trades have shifted to the commodity segment, as no transaction tax is levied. A Commodities Transaction Tax was discussed but there was intense lobbying and the finance ministry has put off the proposal. The absence of a transaction charge in commodities has aided volumes in this segment. Average daily trades worth Rs 50,000 crore are generated daily.
While the cost of trading equity, including brokerage, in the US and Europe is around Rs 500 on trades worth Rs 1 crore, it is as high as Rs 1,300 in India. This includes Rs 850 as STT. While Rs 200 goes to the exchange, Rs 200 is paid as stamp duty and Rs 21 as service tax. Also, Rs 10 is collected by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. In addition, there is a brokerage. If trades are delivery-based, they attract depository and demat charges as well. While it may seem miniscule in percentage terms, it is a major burden, as traders can make profit in India only after 28 ticks, while in the US and the UK, just one favourable tick on index futures can generate a profit. In the US, the spread on the S&P contract, or one tick, is 25 cents. So, if a trader gets just one tick right, he can take home 20 cents, as the trading cost there is just five cents. This is the reason why the US markets are more liquid.
The exchanges also expressed their views on extension in trade timings and allowing foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and non-resident Indians to trade in the currency segment. On an average, trades worth Rs 30,000 crore are reported in currency derivatives, mainly generated by stock brokers in Mumbai, Delhi and Calcutta. Among the three exchanges where currency trading takes place, one was not in favour of allowing FIIs in the currency derivative segment.

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

Manappuram Finance Ltd hits another buyer freeze in the opening trade. The scirp got locked at the UC at Rs.16.05. The stock was repeatedly recommended last week, as a must buy. Gold prices would continue to remain buoyant in the Indian markets, due to import restrictions. Meanwhile, Shri V.P.Nandakumar, Managing Director & CEO said, that the changes in lending policies introduced by the RBI will strengthen the NBFC sector in the long run. Also, the company announced the following news yesterday: Manappuram Finance Limited has submitted to the Exchange a copy of the disclosure under Regulation 13(4) of SEBI (Prohibition of Insider Trading) Regulations, 1992 in relation to the purchase of 2, 52,000 equity shares of the Company by Mr. I Unnikrishnan, Executie Director and Dy. Chief Executive Officer of the Company, and 6,000 equity shares purchased by Mrs. Sathialekshmi. M jointly with Mr. I Unnikrishnan. (Source MSE).
The Nifty_Futures moved to 5526.75, after a buy was given on it with a target of 5530. The Nifty_Futures is expected to try crossing 5620 once again this week. 
MCX Ltd hit the buyer freeze in the opening phase. Those who have not exited the scrip, and have taken fresh position after it was again recommended in Facebook at around Rs.272, can continue to hold the scrip, with a SL at Rs.287. The stock closed at Rs.306.90, in the BSE.
B F Utility Ltd touched Rs.137 today, while BHEL touched Rs.124.65 (Recommended at Rs.120) and L &T touched Rs.759.75 (Recommended at Rs.743.95), after they were recommended  in the Premium Blog today. B F Utility Ltd closed at Rs.134, after it broke out last week, from the existing trend. The new government in Karnataka is positive for the company. B F Utility Ltd gets a good portion of its revenue from the wind power. CLICK HERE.

Easier exit window for foreign investors in infrastructure projects

NEW DELHI: The government is planning to a give easier exit window to foreign investors in construction, housing and township projects, hoping to spur greater equity inflow into the debt burdened sector and help faster completion of delayed projects.

The measures are continuation of the government's ongoing drive to make FDI policy more attractive. Under the current rules, 100% FDI is allowed in the construction, housing and township but subject to a threeyear lock-in, a condition that was imposed to ensure speculative money does not flow into real estate but has also had the unintended consequence of stifling genuine investments.

The sector attracted $1.3 billion FDI in 2012-13, down 58% from $3.1 billion in 2011-12. The department of Industrial policy and promotion (DIPP) is now mulling allowing foreign investor to exit after completion of the project or three years, whichever is earlier, as proposed by the ministry of housing and urban poverty alleviation (MHUPA).

Most housing projects are running one to two years late because of slowdown and shortage of funds because of elevated debt levels.

"Though DIPP is yet to finalise on the relaxation in FDI conditions, but the exit window to developers after project completion seems suitable. However, greater clarity would be needed on the definition of completion," said a government official in privy of the matter.

"Providing an exit door to the foreign investor on project completion before 3 years will be a good sign. This would make entry and exit simpler like it is in other countries. But I am doubtful if it will lead to an immediate dollar inflow", said Anshuman

Magazine, CMD, CBRE, an international real estate consultancy firm. However, industry feels there should not be any exit clause. "Most townships or housing projects take more than 3 years to construct anyways. What difference will the exit on completion make? A foreign investor should be allowed to exit whenever it wants, as per the agreement between him and the Indian player", said RR Singh, director general, National real estate development council.

The other changes under consideration include reducing the minimum capitalization of the eligible construction project in which FDI can come in to $ 5 million against $ 10 million presently for wholly owned subsidiaries and from $5 million to $2.5 million for joint ventures with Indian partners.

MHUPA has also asked for a reduction in the minimum built up area from 50,000 sq mt to 20,000 sq mt. However in case of serviced housing plots, minimum land area may remain the same at 10 hectares.

DIPP is looking into all these but is opposed some of the more liberal proposals like the urban development ministry's suggestion foreign investors be allowed to purchase land and other immovable assets for construction purpose. "This is nearly the same as saying allowing FDI in real estate business, which is not permitted", said the official.

Urban development ministry has also recommended that foreign investment up to 49% be free from any entry condition to attract foreign capital providers that do not have long-term interest in construction assets.

Courtesy: The Economic Times

Gold prices rebound; jewellers stocking up for festivals

Thu Oct 3, 2013: Gold futures rebounded on Thursday from their lowest level in two weeks, tracking gains in overseas prices, though a strong rupee limited the upside.

* Despite the price rise, demand improved slightly as jewellers were seen placing orders for the peak festive season.

* At 2:57 p.m., the benchmark October gold contract the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 1.21 percent higher at 29,886 rupees per 10 grams. It hit a low of 29,352 rupees on Tuesday, a level last seen on September 18.

* "Some jewellers are placing orders as they have very thin inventory. They want supplies for Dussehra and Diwali," said a dealer with a private importing bank in Mumbai.

* India will celebrate the Hindu festivals of Dussehra in the third week of October and Diwali in the first week of November, a period when buying gold is considered auspicious.

* Some banks, which are primary dealers of bullion, re-started imports after the customs department gave its approval to some lots.

* Imports had virtually stopped after the so-called 80/20 principle, which tied exports with domestic consumption, creating confusion among government officials, and prompting the commerce ministry to call a meeting to break the deadlock.

* Overseas, gold held onto sharp overnight gains in Asian trading on Thursday as weak U.S. economic data and a partial government shutdown raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would stick to its bullion-friendly stimulus for longer.

* The rupee rose 1 percent on Thursday. A strong rupee makes gold imports cheaper.

* Indian markets were closed on Wednesday for a national holiday.

(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Prateek Chatterjee)

Courtesy: Reuters

Physical buying may help gold edge up

Indian imports, affected by a July 22 RBI notification stipulating that at least 20 per cent of the yellow metal brought into the country should be re-exported, are likely to resume anytime now.

HENNAI, SEPT 24:  Gold prices on the domestic spot and futures market are likely to look up a little on hopes that buying in China and India may increase. However, uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s move on the $85-billion-a-month stimulus package is proving to be a market dampener.

Indian imports, affected by a July 22 RBI notification stipulating that at least 20 per cent of the yellow metal brought into the country should be re-exported, are likely to resume anytime now. With kharif harvest beginning and festivals ahead, rural consumers could begin buying gold.

On the other hand, buying in China is seen up ahead of holidays starting October 1. Gold purchases in Shanghai exchange increased on Monday.

But holdings of gold in electronic form in exchange-traded funds dropped. On Monday, SPDR Trust, world’s largest gold exchange traded fund, reported that its holdings dropped below 910 tonnes to 909.59 tonnes.

Data on Germany business climate, US Consumer confidence, US chain store sales and housing index could have some influence on the precious metals market later in the day. In India, any rise in the rupee’s value against the dollar will make imports of gold, crude oil and vegetable oils cheaper.

Spot gold, gold futures

In early Asian trade, spot gold rose to $1,326.63 an ounce and gold futures maturing in December at $1,326.60.

In Mumbai bullion market, gold for jewellery (99.5% purity) dropped to Rs 29,790 and pure gold (99.9% purity) to Rs 29,935.

On MCX, gold October contracts could try to scale back to Rs 30,000.

Crude Oil

Crude oil is likely to rule flat as production is rising in Nigeria and Libya. Besides, speculation that the UN could pass a resolution that will ensure that there will be no military attack by the US on Syria. This will safeguard crude oil supplies from the West Asian region.

Brent crude contracts maturing in November ruled at $108.46 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery the same month at $103.42.

Oils and Oilseeds

The oils and oilseeds complex could gain on bargain hunting after prices slipped last week. Besides, demand for US bean and drop in inventories could hold up the counter.

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean contracts for delivery in November rose to $13.15 a bushel. On Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, crude palm oil contracts maturing in December opened higher at 2,324 ringgit or $724 a tonne.

Grains complex

Projections of higher imports by Chinese crop agency by at least one million tonnes are likely to drive wheat prices higher in the grains complex. This is despite higher bearish bets on the grain.

Rain in North America, threatening Canadian wheat, and dry weather in Australia and Argentina, which could affect the yield, are other bullish factors aiding wheat.

On the other hand, corn (industrial maize) is under pressure after exports from the US last week dropped to less than 18 million bushels against over 20 million bushels the previous week.

CBOT wheat contracts for delivery in December increased to $6.56 a bushel and corn for delivery the same month edged marginally up at $4.54 a bushel.

Natural rubber

Natural rubber prices on spot and futures markets could be under pressure as crude prices head lower. Fears of higher imports by the user industry are also dragging the counter.

On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, rubber to be delivered in February slipped to 277.3 yen or Rs 176 a kg.

(This article was published on September 24, 2013)

Courtesy: The Hindu Business Line

 Gold likely to yo-yo on uncertainty over stimulus package

[Editor: There is no Uncertainty in the Stimulus Package, except the media generated Hoax. It is to be understood that hereto, Dr.Ben Bernanke and his deputies stressed that the US Fed might start tapering, once the data gives positive indication. So, there is no question of the US Fed removing QE in October, 2013, since the figures do suggest the same. Those who cannot read between the lines only can make such wild guesses, that the US Fed would start to limit its bond buying program from October, 2013. Moreover, Pharma (Opto Circuits Ltd, CMP: Rs.22.30) and IT companies are still looking good at this point of time, apart from Gold Loan Companies like Manappuram Finance Ltd (Rs.15.20)]

Photo: www.afaqs.com

Chennai, Sept 25:  Gold prices on the domestic spot and futures market are likely to trade sideways on Wednesday as uncertainty over end to the US stimulus programme continues to worry the market.

Agencies reported a key decision maker as saying that the US Federal Reserve will begin cutting its $85-billion-a-month stimulus package before the year-end.

Elsewhere, US consumer confidence dropped as also rise in US home prices slowing in July.

Durable goods, home sales data

Data on US durable goods orders and new home sales later in the day could shed some light on which way the economy is heading and probably, provide some direction to the yellow metal.

Kharif crop forecast

The Indian Farm Ministry has said that the kharif or summer crop this year will be the highest over the last five years.

It remains to be seen see how the rural population reacts to a higher income, coming in at least from higher support price for foodgrains and major oilseeds. Most probably, this factor could cushion any steep fall in gold, for now.

Spot gold, gold futures

In early Asian trading, spot gold ruled at $1,324.74 an ounce and gold futures maturing in December at $1,324.90.

In the domestic market on Wednesday, gold for jewellery (99.5 per cent purity) edged marginally up at Rs 29,820 for 10 gm and pure gold (99.9 per cent purity) to Rs 29,970.

On MCX, October gold contracts could rule between Rs 29,500 and Rs 30,000.

Rupee Vs dollar

In the Indian context, the rupee’s movement against the dollar could also have a role to play since a stronger Indian currency makes the import of gold, crude oil and vegetable oils costlier.

Having dropped over the last four sessions, crude oil could edge higher on Wednesday, especially on speculation that US crude stockpiles could have dropped. Data on the stocks are expected later in the day.

Crude oil prices

Brent crude contract maturing in November was up at $108.78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate for the same month at $103.27.

The oils and oilseeds complex is likely to head north on threat of frost in the US Midwest region besides bets that rains in that region are not enough to boost the crop. A rise on soyameal prices, too, could help the complex scale up.

Soyabean, crude palm oil

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean November contracts rose to $13.18 a bushel. Crude palm oil December contracts on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange opened higher at 2,310 ringgit or $716.50 a tonne.

Wheat, corn prices

With wheat prices rising above the 50-day moving average, technically they are likely to rise. Fundamentally, China has increased its import of US wheat and inspections for its exports are also higher.

On the other hand, Argentina, going through a dry period, could see frost in the main-growing area, threatening the standing crop further.

Corn (industrial maize), on the other hand, could drop as a higher harvest looms.

CBOT wheat for delivery in December rose to $6.59 a bushel and corn for delivery the same month to $4.49 a bushel.

Courtesy: The Hindu Business Line

WINNING STROKES: THINK DIFFERENT

In the morning inputs to the Paid Group, it was mentioned that if the Nifty_Spot can hold above 6220 on the upside, then  it might manage to cross 6240 during the days. The Nifty rose to 6245.95 intra-day, before closing at 6238.80 with a gain of 38.75 points. Also, the stock from the automobile sector which was recommended yesterday night, hit the buyer freeze today at Rs.58.40. The  name of the scrip will be disclosed tomorrow evening. Today, I could recommend another stock from the small cap space to the Paid Group members and to those who are trading through my recommended brokerage houses. In these kinds of markets the best strategy is to buy and keep holding, the profits are expected to come, if your choice of stocks are right, be it Manappuram Finance Ltd (Rs.22.85, recommended at Rs.18 and Rs.15) or BF Utilites Ltd (Rs.543.30, recommended at Rs.129) or MCX Ltd (Rs.524, recommended at Rs.264). 

BHEL recommended around Rs.148-149, today touched the 2nd target of Rs.162, as it hit an intra-day high of Rs.162.50. The closed at Rs.162.05 with a gain of 1.63%. You can either stay put in the stock with a SL of Rs.157 or put the same money in HINDALCO Industries Ltd at Rs.98.35. There were some reports that probably, the inter-ministerial group has cleared Mahan coal block in Madhya Pradesh, jointly held by the company, Essar Power, and DB Power, to be retained by the companies on having secured forest clearance. The immediate target is Rs.107. The SL is now Rs.97--you can take a risk of Rs.2 on closing basis and invest in the scrip. 

There is no stopping of P C Jeweler Ltd, which touched the 6th target today at Rs.103 and is  now moving towards the 7th target of Rs.109, if it is able to clear the stiff resistance zone of Rs.104-105. The scrip today closed at Rs.103.45, with a gain of 2.32%. Shree Ganesh Jewelry House (I) Ltd which was strongly recommended today to the Paid Group members, closed with a gain of 1.66% at Rs.27 .55. 

Tulip Telecom Ltd after it was recommended on Monday, hit another buyer freeze at Rs.4.09. The company is likely to be taken over by a turnover expert. Also, Entegra Ltd which repeatedly recommended here in this blog today closed at Rs.4.12. This stock will also double your returns in the next few weeks time frame. Even if you have not bought the scrip, please buy it and keep holding. 

Meanwhile both Allied Digital Services Ltd (Rs.13.77) and Glodyne Technoserve Ltd (Rs.7) closed with gains on the bourses today.  

Market Mantra

MCX Ltd recommended at Rs.255 and then at Rs.272, today touched Rs.391.55 in the BSE. The scrip was asked a buy, when there was of pessimism surrounding te counter.

Geometric Software Ltd recommended around Rs.76-77, to the Paid Service members today touched Rs.79.90 in the NSE. It is a scrip in which ace investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwalal is holding substantial stake. 
Gitanjali Gems Ltd has hit the buyer freeze in the opening trade at Rs.76.15.  There were some media rumours that the company, which has been hit by RBI's new rules on gold import, has approached banks for more than 10 bln rupees in loans.

Today's call: Buy Manppuram Finance Ltd Rs.19.30, T--Rs.25-29-31, SL--Rs.16.80 or Muthoot Finance Ltd at Rs.113-114, T--Rs.132, SL-Rs.103. With gold now around Rs.30, 000 plus in India, there cannot be a better opportunity than investing in gold loan companies. With the tension in Syria continuing and no fixed call from the US Fed regarding tapering of the QE3, the gold prices are not likely to come down below Rs.30, 000 in the domestic market too soon. Moreover, the ensuring festive season starting from Ganesh Chaturthi, will keep the demand for Gold in the domestic market very high. CLICK HERE and CLICK HERE. 
Jai Prakash Associates Ltd recommended last week around Rs.32-33, today rose to Rs.36. The stock was strongly recommended for the 1st target of Rs.37. 
Buy Dena Bank Ltd at Rs.45, T--Rs.52, SL--Rs.41.80. The company came out with decent set of numbers for the Q1FY14, sequentially. The point which to be noted is that in Q1FY14, the EPS is Rs.5.40, which gives perfect indication how undervalued the share price is, at the CMP. One should buy the stock and keep holding. Today another scrip from the Public Sector Bank space, Union Bank India Ltd rose more than 5% intra-day and is now trading at Rs.107.70.
There is positive news in UNITED BREWERIES LTD: Vijay Mallya got 10.5 mn pledged shares released on Aug 7.  The scrip could cross Rs.800 in the next few trading sessions. 
NMDC Ltd recommended around Rs.107-109 and again at Rs.93-94, today touched Rs.122.50.  It has recently been recommended by a number of advisory services. CLICK HERE.

Gold curbs to arrest CAD hit West Bengal’s artisans hard 

[Editor: As expected the poor artisans of this sector are  hit the  most, especially at  a time when the inflation is too high and the unemployment rate is increasing. P Chidambarams' draconian methods, will now perhaps completely destroy the Gems and Jewellery sector, like many others like, Infrastructure, Power, Real Estate, Automobile, Ceramics, etc. etc. The general elections are very near, and the affected people might show their anger in the ballot box]

KOLKATA: With elections round the corner, the Mamata Banerjee government is perturbed over artisans in gold trade losing jobs as there is hardly any work with jewellers due to supply crunch of the yellow metal. 

The state supplies the best artisans in jewellery trade and nearly 1 crore people from the state are engaged in the trade. 

Talking to ET, the state labour minister Purnendu Basu said, "If things take a turn for the worse, then we will try to find schemes where these artisans can be absorbed. It is a matter of great concern for us. Let's see what steps the Central government takes on gold. We will also talk to the state's jewellery trade to find out a way. We cannot allow artisans to remain jobless." 

The jewellery trade employs nearly 3.5 crore ar artisans. Among them artisans from Bengal are famous for the  their handmade jewellery, which are sold at a premium. 

Nemichand Bamalwa, member, All Indian Gem & Jewellery Trade Federation said "Nearly 15 -20 lakh artisans from Bengal are jobless right now. If this situation continues for another two to three months then they will be forced to leave the profession and look for some other profession. But that too will be difficult for them.

As of now there is hardly any demand in gold and whatever minimum work is taking place is in the recycled categories where families are redesigning their old gold to meet immediate requirements." But there seems to be no respite for the gold trade immediately. 

According to agency reports, revenue secretary Sumit Bose has said that review of gold curbs will take place by the end of March. India used to be the world's biggest importer of gold until 2012. But the swollen CAD forced the government to increase import duty on gold from 2% to 10% and rule. 

"We are more concerned about the 80:20 rule that has resulted in increased smuggling of gold through the NRI route. This rule should be removed immediately if the sector has to survive. Otherwise many will lose their living," added Bamalwa. 

On July 22 last year, the Reserve Bank of India had said that a fifth of the gold purchases by importers in every lot would have to be exclusively made available to exporters. It said only 80% of the imports could be used for domestic purposes, and that too for entities engaged in jewellery trade, bullion dealers and banks. 

In fact, Congress president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi has written a letter to the commerce ministry to look into the matter following a meet with the All India Gem & Jewellery Trade Federation. Commenting on the outlook for gold, Sugandha Sachdeva, AVP (metals, energy and currency research), Religare Securities said "At MCX, Rs 29,650/10gm and Rs 29,900/10gm remain immediate supply zones, above which prices may soar towards Rs 30,500/10gm in near term. On the flip side, in case prices fail to breach the said levels, they can testRs 28,850-28,800/10gm on the lower side. 

Courtesy: The Economic Times

Tit- bits

Photo: SCB Global Network 

At the  time of writing the BSE Sensex was seen trading at 33,617.39 up 313.87 points (+0.94%) while Nifty was trading at 9,918.10 up 91.95 (+0.94%).

The domestic indices are likely to come off from these levels, as market participants are afraid of taking leverage positions at current levels amid a rise in volatility.

What is irrational and hilarious is that when this quarter GDP growth of India would be near ZERO,  the Nifty is near 10000. Therefore, a stock market contrary to the popular perception is NEVER a barometer of any economy in the short term -- though in the long term markets will reflect the macroeconomic characteristics of any economy.  The point to drive home is that: Stock Markets will rise, if people BUYs stocks and will touch nadir due to sentiment turning extremely pessimistic. In short term,  rise or fall of tbourses has nothing much to do with the fundamentals of any economy, it is purely sentiment driven. 

With Indians counting themselves among the 7 - worst Covid - 19 affected nations, this irrational upmove of the indices defy all logic and imagination. This shows how, people all over the world are a prisoner of the term "Herd Mentality".

Narendra Modi government have been presenting us with, a rickety economy since the ill conceived demonetisation, which was touted to kill the burning economic evils in one go, was implemented, with all force and tall talks; bereft of any accountability or scruple. Now this Covid - 19 episode is likely to make things even worse, if Rnot worst. The unemployment figures according to some estimates have already touched 14 crore plus. What will happen in the next few months is an obvious conclusion. Those who are saying the worst is behind us, are simply building castles in air. Just wait and watch!!

Besides,  higher margin requirements in the F&O segment is also detering the punter to go high leveraged.

The benchmark indices added another 3% on June 1, the first day of lockdown 5.0 on the hope of a fast economic revival, as the government allowed resuming economic activities in non-containment zones.

However,  with Rs.20 lakh crore economic package for Covid - 19 pandemic, and Rs.1000 crore for the Amphan affected people, and with a very low visible revenue stream during the last couple of months, this government is virtually at the end of its tether.  

I  don't agree with those theories which speak of higher revenues due to robust economic package. With so much uncertainty still wrapped around Covid - 19, it would be beggar our imagination, if we underestimate the loss in GDP growth, due to this catastrophe.

Gold prices are likely to come down as more and more countries ease lockdown curbs, lowering the risk sentiment. On MCX, gold futures were down marginally at ₹47,137 per 10 gram.

Moreover,  Moody's downgrading of India's sovereign rating on Monday., will not go well with FPIs, DIIs nd HNIs. 

In such circumstances, I foresee the Nifty to test 9300, before touching 10000.

Meanwhile, Granules India Ltd hit Rs.179.75 intraday, after it was recommended by a consultancy in Money Control. 

SKM Egg Products Export Ltd also touched Rs.37. The demand for eggs is likely to be high in global markets in the short term, primarily due to poultry industry suffering in the hands of Covid - 19 catastrophe.

Also,  my recently recommend SAIL made a high of Rs.31.10, while HINDALCO Industries Ltd made a high of Rs.143.50, intraday.

The scrip of National Fertilisers Ltd touched Rs.27.70, intraday, today. It almost doubled from the price of Rs.14.70, it made post nation wide Lockdown. I have been recommending a buy on dips for the scrip since some time.  

I would suggest profit booking (if any) and wait on the sidelines, for the arrival of the monsoon, in the entire country.