Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Winning Strokes: Think Different
Prajay Engineers Syndicate Ltd (Rs.10.80) recommended several times in this blog hit 20% upper circuit today. The real estate prices in Vijayawada is shooting over the roof and this is having positive effect in Hyderabad based real estate prices too.  The book value of the shares of the company is Rs.87.64. Where is the stock heading? To know this, join me at Whatsapp; only if you are either a Premium member or is trading through my recommended brokerage house.

Reliance Communications today clocked good delivery volumes. The scrip is consolidating at the CMP of Rs.48.40 before taking an upward leap; as RJio files application to buy the lucrative 700 MHz spectrum. RCom has a tie up with RJio regarding spectrum sharing on pan India basis. I am looking for a target of Rs.71-75, within a short time.

MBL infrastructure recommended here at around Rs.91.70 touched Rs.123. The Investors were suggested to book profit the day it came of the UC. The stock hit non stop UCs, after it was recommended here.

Gold prices have started to surge, as the US election date nears. Therefore, keep adding the share of Shrenuj & Co Ltd (Rs.2.15) on declines. Once Rs.2.55 is broken the stock should surge up.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Film Financier/s Required
I am looking for a partner for a Bollywood and a Bhojpuri Film, starring Rani Chatterjee, with an investment capacity of Rs.25-30 (Bhojpuri) lakhs to Rs.2 crores (Bollywood Hindi movie) in phases for the two films..

The director has around 25-30 years of experience in Hindi Film industry (Bollywood) and I will be one of the assistant directors and publicity head. So you don't have to worry much about the correct utilization of funds.

The interested candidates can send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s@gmail.com.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Do You know?
Simplex Infrastructure got a contract from Mumbai Metro to build a portion from Andheri to Dahisar.

Now Simplex Projects Ltd (Rs.27) also has Raghav Das Mundra as one of the promoters, apart from Lata and Vallabh R Bhansali, the veteran investors. 

The promoters' holding has also increased marginally in June, 2016 quarter.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Today's Recommendations
1. Buy Simplex Projects Ltd at Rs.27.40, for short term targets of Rs.37-41.

2. You can continue to add the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.70) on all declines.

3.You can book some profits in MBL Infrastructure, when it comes out of UC.

4. The diamond Jewelry sector is set to do well after the US elections. So, you can buy and hold Shrenuj & Co (Rs.2.15).


Today's Recommendations
1. Buy Simplex Projects Ltd sr Rs.27.40, for short term targets of Rs.37-41.

2. You can continue to add the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.70) on all declines.

3.You can book some profits in MBL Infrastructure, when it comes out of UC.

4. The diamond Jewelry sector is set to do well after the US elections. So, you can buy and hold Shrenuj & Co (Rs.2.15).


Today's Recommendations
1. Buy Simplex Projects Ltd sr Rs.27.40, for short term targets of Rs.37-41.

2. You can continue to add the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.70) on all declines.

3.You can book some profits in MBL Infrastructure, when it comes out of UC.

4. The diamond Jewelry sector is set to do well after the US elections. So, you can buy and hold Shrenuj & Co (Rs.2.15).


Today's Recommendations
1. Buy Simplex Projects Ltd sr Rs.27.40, for short term targets of Rs.37-41.

2. You can continue to add the shares of Reliance Communications Ltd (Rs.50.70) on all declines.

3.You can book some profits in MBL Infrastructure, when it comes out of UC.


Saturday, September 10, 2016

Crore-pati Scheme
If anyone or a business group can invest around Rs.25-30 lakhs in Indian Share Market in select stocks, just as investment, then his portfolio can became Rs.1-2 crores using some recent technicians, in 3-4 years.

The recent trend in the market, gives us some indication that the next level of rally will come from the small and micro caps, where the growth potential is astronomical.

If any investors is interested then send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s @gmail.com.

This will be  mainly investment based with very little trading. I will take 25% of profit at the end. The investor/s will hzve to sign court agreement for the same.
Crore-pati Scheme
If anyone or a business group can invest around Rs.25-30 lakhs in Indian Share Market in select stocks, just as investment, then his portfolio can became Rs.1-2 crores using some recent technicians, in 3-4 years.

If any investors is interested then send me a mail at: suman2005s@rediffmail.com or sumanm2007s @gmail.com.

This will be  mainly investment based with very little trading. I will take 25% of profit at the end. The investor/s will hzve to sign court agreement for the same.

Friday, September 09, 2016

Today's Call
1.Buy MBL infrastructure Ltd at Rs.91.75 - 92, for short term targets of Rs.115 --130.

2. Reduce your holding in Unitech Ltd if it closes below Rs.6.30. This is only, if you are a short term player. The long term investors can hold with a SL of Rs.5.60.

3. You can increase your holding in Reliance Communication Ltd at Rs.51.20, as most of the shares from ADA group are showing a good uptrend.

4. Rolta Ltd (Rs.65.50) needs to close above Rs.67, to begin the next round of upmove.

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Winning Strokes: Think Different
Reliance Communication Ltd showed good upmove today, closing near Rs.51. We can look for targets of Rs.57-61 very soon.

Unitech Ltd closed flat today, after massive upmove yesterday. The stock is headed towards Rs.12 in the coming days.

As expected Shrenuj & Co (Rs.2.30) hit the buyer freezes in both the exchanges. The company is preparing to rake in moolah from the on going festival season.

Today my recommended Reliance Defense and Engineering moved above Rs.71 to close at Rs.68.85. Unless Rs.67 is broken on the downside, the stock could be held by medium term investors. The short term traders might have booked some profit, near the first target of Rs.71.

The stock of Rolta India Ltd was recommended today, at Rs.64.10 for short term targets of Rs.71-75. The company is having a board meeting next week.

The company was recently invited to bid for a multi-million dollar 'Make in India' project and project of Rs.60,000 crore in consortium with BEL is also progressing well.

On other deal front, the company won USD 15 million project in West Asia for smart city & 3D mapping. It also won a deal with a housing authority in West Asia for land administration.

Rolta Ltd plans to streamline the defence business as a separate and distinct wholly owned subsidiary mainly because the regulatory environment is different for the defence and IT businesses.

Moreover, it would also help them to completely focus on defence business since Rolta is one of the few companies that have been repeatedly invited for ‘Make in India’ projects.

Most of the demerger news are generally positive for the shareholders.
Winning Strokes: Think Different
Reliance Communication Ltd showed good upmove today, closing near Rs.51. We can look for targets of Rs.57-61 very soon.

Unitech Ltd closed flat today, after massive upmovd yesterday. The stock is headed tpwatdd Rs.12 in the coming days.

As expected Shrenuj & Co (Rs.2.30) hit the buyer freezes in both the exchanges. The company is preparing to rake in moolah from the on going festival season.

Today my recommended Reliance Defense and Engineering moved above Rs.71 to close at Rs.68.85. Unless Rs.67 is broken on the downside, the stock could be held by medium term investors. The short term traders might have booked some profit, near the first target of Rs.71.

The stock of Rolta India Ltd was recommended today, at Rs.64.10 for short term targets of Rs.71-75. The company is having a board meeting next week.
Rolta India Ltd: Buy
CMP: Rs.64 -- Rs.64.10
Winning Strokes: Think Different
Unitech Ltd (Rs.6.35) hit the UC today, though cooling down a bit in the fag end of the day. The stock is headed towards Rs.10-12 in the short term. This happened after a favourable High Court observation.

Reliance Communications Ltd today tried to clear the resistance zone of Rs.50.70-51.50, but failed to so, closing at Rs.49.95. The company has already said that it would not cut the tariff rates; as it perhaps knows the business strategy of Reliance Jio, whose Services seems to flop after prolonged advertising blitzkrieg. The RJio customers are already complaining of slower speed, network issues, etc. This is likely to slow the migration of non-Jio players-- an advantage for Reliance Communications Ltd. I am expecting the stock to touch Rs.72 in the short term.

The diamond jewelry maker Shrenuj & Co today closed at Rs.2.21 in the BSE, which indication the resumption of the next wave of uptrend. I am holding some shares of the company and is looking for short term target of Rs.6.

Reliance Defense and Engineering Ltd is finding difficulties to cross the resistance zone of Rs.67.50-68. Once this is crossed indication on the upside, we can look for targets of Rs.72-73. The above photo is from The Hindu.

Note: I am still not having net connection, aftermath, the change of my location in Bombay. Please bear with me.
Winning Strokes: Think Different
Unitech Ltd (Rs.6.35) hit the UC today, though cooling down a bit in the fag end of the day. The stock is headed towards Rs.10-12 in the short term. This happened after a favourable High Court observation.

Reliance Communications Ltd today tried to clear the resistance zone of Rs.50.70-51.50, but failed to so, closing at Rs.49.95. The company has already said that it would not cut the tariff rates; as it perhaps knows the business strategy of Reliance Jio, whose Services seems to flop after prolonged advertising blitzkrieg. The RJio customers are already complaining of slower speed, network issues, etc. This is likely to slow the migration of non-Jio players-- an advantage for Reliance Communications Ltd. I am expecting the stock to touch Rs.72 in the short term.

The diamond jewelry maker Shrenuj & Co today closed at Rs.2.21 in the BSE, which indication the resumption of the next wave of uptrend. I am holding some shares of the company and is looking for short term target of Rs.6.

Reliance Defense and Engineering Ltd is finding difficulties to cross the resistance zone of Rs.67.50-68. Once this is crossed indication on the upside, we can look for targets of Rs.72-73. The above photo is from The Hindu.

Sunday, September 04, 2016

Govt offers fin relief to realty cos
[Editor: This is expected to be a sort of boon for the established real estate players like DLF Ltd (Rs.149.90), Unitech Ltd (Rs.5.25), Parsvnath Developers Ltd (Rs.16.80), HCC Ltd (Rs.35.55), etc. who are reeling under high debt burden; with a squeeze on cash flow. I continue to maintain a buy on Unitech Ltd with short term targets of Rs.9-12] 
Sep 1, 2016:  The government on Wednesday announced a package to ease the financial stress on construction companies, including a possible loan restructuring package for the real estate sector — a move that could prompt property developers to resume work on stalled projects.

"The department of financial services and the RBI will try and prepare a policy on how to deal with those companies which have got a lot of stressed assets in the real estate sector. We hope that a series of these decisions would pump in a lot of liquidity in the sector, activate a lot of real estate and infrastructure projects which have been stranded for some time and support the entire process of dispute resolution in relation to construction and real estate," finance minister Arun Jaitley told reporters after the Union cabinet cleared the package.

As reported by TOI on August 26, the package prepared by the NITI Aayog seeks to ensure release of 75% of funds locked up in projects where an arbitration award has been made in favour of a construction company. In case where the award has been challenged, agencies such as National Highways Authority of India would transfer 75% of the award amount into an escrow account against margin free bank guarantee. This amount can be used to repay loans and generate liquidity besides easing the burden on companies.

"HCC will immediately be able to reduce its debt by almost half as a result and will be able to reduce it even further within 12 to 24 months. With this, HCC will be able to participate in country's infrastructure development in a much bigger way," said HCC chairman and managing director Ajit Gulabchand. The company which is under financial pressure has around Rs.3,000 crore caught in disputes with government agencies.

There is gain for individuals too as some of the real estate developers have delayed delivery of projects citing lack of funds.

"If the banks extend the repayment schedule, developers will use the cash flow in completing the projects instead of repaying the loan. This will help the sector and the economy," said ATS Infrastructure CMD Getamber Anand, who is also heads real estate lobby group Credai.

In case of construction companies the government has sought to speed up the arbitration process, Jaitley said. Public sector companies and the government would seek the consent of contractors to transfer cases initiated under the earlier law to the amended act.

And, to avoid a build-up of cases in future, the government also wants its arms to set up Conciliation Committees to ensure speedy disposal disputes.

Reliance Communications Ltd: Should We Buy...?
CMP: Rs.49.20
In a move seen as aggressive, Reliance Jio has announced free voice calls across network and data charges that are 30-50% lower than that charged by incumbents including Vodafone and Airtel. A number of brokerage houses cut the price targets of incumbent telecom players Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular fering that Jio's launch would disrupt the $28-billion Indian telecom market.

Influential foreign brokerages Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse and JP Morgan have cut their 12-month price targets for Airtel and Idea by as much as 19%. Jio's commercial launch will be on September 5, 2016, but it plans to offer unlimited data, voice, video and SMS until December, 2016 as part of its 'welcome offer'. The newest telecom entrant is targeting 100 million customers in 'shortest possible time'.

Therefore, while an entire spectrum of telecom-analysts are getting heebie-jeebies over Reliance Jio's 4G launch and its potential negative effects on the revenue/earnings on the top four operators -- Bharti Airtel Ltd, Idea Cellular Ltd, Vodafone Ltd and Reliance Communications Ltd,  let us focus our attention primarily on Reliance Communications Ltd Vis-a-Vis Reliance Jio's historical launch. It is pertinent to mention here that most investors are probably missing out on the other key developments that can offset the impact of slower industry revenue growth, following Jio's launch; at least partially.

(i) Jio offerings are restricted to 4G handset subscribers, therefore, the impact on existing telcos will be gradual while it would be interesting to see how they cope up with the new challenges. 

(ii) Reliance Communications has already started to move its five million CDMA customers to Jio's 4G LTE network from May 4, 2016. While the users will continue to be RCom subscribers, the network will be powered by Jio's all-IP based next generation network. 


(iii) If Reliance Jio (RJio) garners Rs.200-250 average revenue per user (ARPU) while switching offerings from voice to data, incumbents’ ARPU base could be protected given their current ARPU base of Rs sub-200, wrote Motilal Oswal in their recently published research report. 






(viii) Reliance Jio announced its tariff (rate) plans starting at Rs.149 for 28 days, offering unlimited voice - - this is higher than the voice average revenue per user (Arpu) of Bharti and Idea, at Rs.138 and Rs.130, respectively.



(xi) Equinomics Research & Advisory wrote: "Post RIL AGM, Bharti Infratel stock price fell about 4% from its intra-day peak. We feel the fear is unwarranted. The aggressive launch of 3G and 4G services, and also pressure on the existing players to improve the transparency will lead to increase the demand for telecom towers. Ultimately Bharti Infratel would be a major beneficiary of expanding scope of mobile telecom services". Or in other words, the impact (if any) has either been factored in the prices of the shares of the incumbents or will play only for the short to to medium term (As RJio's unlimited offerings and free usage are valid only till December 2016). 

(xii) Ahead of the impending launch of Reliance Jio’s 4G services, telecom operator Reliance Communications recently announced app-to-app 4G calling dubbed as Calling Ka Naya Tareeka' for subscribers across India and worldwide at Re 1. The Anil Ambani-led firm will bundle 300 minutes of app- to-app talking, valid for 30 days at Re 1, translating into 10 minutes usage per day under the limited period offer. Users will get a daily data credit of 7 MB into their accounts that can be used to make these calls.








(xiv) Reliance has always been big on promises but poor on deliveries. A company that lacks a general direction of customer service and rates extremely low on the customer satisfaction index. Reliance is operating the JIO offer without an actual go ahead from the Government, this offer in which you the user, are using the services which allow Reliance Industries to do business without really paying the government spectrum charges and other fees that a commercially launched network has to pay. So each of the 1.5 million users are accomplices in a scam of a colossal scale. Cellular Operators’ Association of India (COAI), the network industry body, accused Reliance of falsely claiming that it is in testing mode...... it seems that things are already sketchy before launch, fake promises of launch among  an already poor infrastructure of voice services.

















There are fears that Jio may not be able to attract new subscribers as there are numerous issues that are currently preventing penetration.





(xxiii) According to a report by ICICI Securities, domestic telecom players are likely to gain from Norwegian telecom company Telenor's exit and winding up of CDMA services. 

"In our view, the top three operators would be major beneficiaries of Telenor's exit from the Indian market. The potential buyer will have an opportunity to retain entire subscribers, though all major incumbent operators will benefit from the exit," it said. 

At present, Telenor India operates in seven circles viz: Maharashtra, Gujarat, AP, UP (west and east), Bihar and Assam, contributing 36% to industry's adjusted gross revenue - - which when taken in simple terms means in the likely event of Telenor exiting India, it would throw Rs.3,400 crore adjusted gross revenue (AGR) up for grabs. However, Telenor exit is unlikely to bring in too much benefits for Reliance Communication Ltd. 





Faced with the impending commercial launch of RJio’s 4G services, telecom operators, including Bharti Airtel and Vodafone are also wooing users through higher data speeds, high definition quality and superior experience on their networks. Recently, Reliance Communications claimed that its 4G LTE network on 850 Mhz spectrum band will provide high-definition quality, instant connectivity and blazing data speeds.

(xxvi) In June, 2016, the rating agency ICRA upgraded its outlook for Reliance Communications Ltd to stable from negative on the long term rating 'BBB+' of the company.  



Conclusion: Considering the above points, I maintain a CONTRARIAN BUY on the stock of Reliance Communications Ltd at the CMP of Rs.49.20, for short term targets of Rs.57-61. Please keep a SL of Rs.45, in case of any short term play. 

Note: I will be off the air for a few days due to shifting of my location in Bombay. However, my Premium Members, can call me on my mobile number, in case of any suggestion. 

So, during these day play safe using strict stop losses, for short term plays - - all the best and wish you a "Happy Ganesh Chathurthi", in advance. 

Friday, September 02, 2016

Winning Strokes: Think Different
Photo: The Hindu Business Line
If there is a Real Estate Push by the NDA government, then the beaten down stocks, like Unitech Ltd (Rs.5.20), DLF Ltd (Rs.150.20), Prestige Ltd (Rs.187.55), etc, will be one of the major beneficiaries. But Unitech Ltd will give multi-bagger returns in the short term. 

Reliance Communications Ltd is up today, after a subdued morning session. The scrip was recommended yesterday, in this blog and should give good returns to the investors in the short term, as there are media reports that the company is likely to announce the much anticipated merger news in the 1st week of September, 2016 and also due to ensuring launch of Reliance Jio Ltd's services. Moreover,Suresh Mahadevan, managing director and head of Asian telecom and media research at UBS says Reliance Jio entry will actually benefit Airtel, Idea.

IVRCL Ltd recommended some days back around Rs.4.80, today touched Rs.5.70, giving decent returns to the investors. Even Gammon Infra Ltd (Rs.5.14) is up more than 3% today. However, I feel the real estate stocks will be more benefited if the NDA government pumps life into Real Estate sector, through a series of measures. 
Reliance Communications Ltd: Buy
CMP: Rs.49.15
Telecom players Reliance Communications Ltd (R-Com) and Aircel Ltd are expected to sign an agreement for merger of their businesses by the first week of September, according to Live Mint, 26 August, 2016.


The R-Com and Aircel talks, if successful, would form India's third-largest telecom operator with a subscriber base of over 196 million.


The new entity, which is in the works, will hold spectrum across all allocated bands—800 megahertz (MHz), 900 MHz, 1,800 MHz, 2,100 MHz and 2,300 MHz—for 2G, 3G and 4G services.

On the other hand, R-Com and Sistema (MTS) are in process of merger. Sistema will hold 10% stake in the new entity that will formed post its merger with R-Com.

In December last, the two firms announced entering into 90-day ‘exclusivity period’ for the merger deal that will exclude R-Com’s tower and optical fibre assets for which a separate sale process is ongoing. The talks were later extended twice.







Moreover, the launch of Reliance Jio Ltd is positive for the shareholders of Reliance Communications Ltd, due to technology (and tower) sharing agreement. 

Note: I will be off the air from 2nd half tomorrow, (approx) for a week due to shifting of my location in Bombay. However, my Premium Members, can call me on my mobile number, in case of any suggestion.
DO YOU KNOW?
Photo: Property Guru 
The NDA government on last Wednesday announced a clutch of measures that is dramatically expected to increase the liquidity of construction firms over the next few weeks -- let banks recover their outstanding dues and give a fillip to the real estate and infrastructure sectors by reactivating several stalled projects.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Cabinet took several measures to revive the real estate and construction sector. Resurrecting life into stagnant sectors, the Cabinet gave nod to more liquidity in construction projects and faster redressal of disputes.

Having recently simplified the arbitration law to make dispute resolution easier and speedier, it has now opened a new facility under which even while an arbitral award is being challenged by a public body, 75% of the amount in question will be released by it to the contractor against a bank guarantee. Also, existing disputes between public bodies and contractors, it said, could be shifted to the new simplified Arbitration Act. Although direct beneficiaries of the move are construction giants like HCC, Gammon India, Gammon Infra and IVRCL, the gains from improved liquidity in construction would be felt across infrastructure industries.

Given contingent liabilities — that correspond to the amounts locked in arbitration/courts — of major public bodies and PSUs are seen to be over Rs.70,000 crore, with National Highways Authority of India (Rs.22,500 crore), DMRC (Rs.11,600 crore) and NHPC (Rs.9,000 crore) topping the list, the provision for release of funds to contractors would mean that some Rs.53,000 crore will be at their disposal.

These monies will be used by the contractors to discharge the liabilities towards banks and financial institutions (which, in turn will improve credit flows) and also to kick-start stalled projects.

However, analysts pointed out that in many sectors like roads, railways, ports and inland waterways, where government agencies themselves have turned major investors given the stagnation in private investment, the release of disputed funds to the contractors could impact their liquidity. But they added that given major government investors like the railways, NHAI and port trusts (apart from budget outlays, they can raise extra-budgetary resources) do not face a funds crunch, in the aggregate, Wednesday’s decisions would spur investments.

Finance minister Arun Jaitley said after a Cabinet meeting that in new contracts, there will be a provision for a conciliation board consisting of independent domain expert who will enter into contractual negotiations if there are changes in commercial circumstances around the project. Besides, item rate contracts would be replaced by turnkey contracts and a model draft turnkey contract would be circulated. The minister added that department of financial services and the Reserve Bank of India will soon prepare a policy to “deal with those companies which have lot of stressed assets in the construction sector”.

Gross value added (GVA) in the construction sector — which accounts for 8% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 4 crore people — has been growing at rates far lower than the overall GVA growth for the last few quarters. Apart from liquidity problems, which partly resulted from lenders’ wariness, tepid demand and overcapacity created in the real estate sector stunted the sector’s expansion. (GVA — construction grew 3.9% in 2016-16 against overall GVA growth of 7.2% and GDP expansion of 7.6% in the year; the sector’s growth was a measly 1.5% in April-June this year, compared with overall GVA growth of expansion of 7.3%.)

“Over 85% of the claims raised against government bodies are still pending, of which 11% is pending with the government agencies, 64% with arbitrators and 8.5% with courts. The average settlement time for claims is estimated at more than seven years. A majority of arbitration awards have gone against the government agencies,” said a government statement.

In the case of NHAI, of a total of 347 arbitral awards, 38 went in favour of the authority and 309 in favour of the contractor/concessionaire. Of the arbitral awards in NHAI cases, more than 90% were unanimous awards in which all arbitrators including the one appointed by NHAI had concurred in the decision. In many cases, arbitration awards are contested in the courts, even though a large majority of arbitration decisions are upheld by the courts.

A turnkey contract, which allows transfer of an entire project to the client after completion at pre-decided rates, is more handy for large contractors unlike the rate contract that requires contractors to quote a rate for each item of work. These measures will pump in liquidity as well as activate the stranded projects, the Finance Minister, Mr.Arun Jaitley said. 

Source: The Financial Express and other media inputs..